Why I don't care who wins the Oscars

But I'm going to make some guesses anyway.

Earlier this week, I was wracking my brain trying to remember who last year’s big Oscar winner was. When I recalled that it was Parasite, that didn’t seem right. Yes, I was elated when Bong Joon Ho’s thriller took home several of the night’s biggest prizes, but surely that was two ceremonies ago, right? 

Welcome to awards season in the pandemic, where this year’s Oscars take place almost a year and a quarter after the last ceremony, and many of the eligible films were actually released this calendar year. It’s a strange situation, and I’m curious what this Sunday’s ceremony will look like, considering the varying success rates of pandemic-era awards ceremonies. 

I’m sure it’s all going to be worth talking about, and I’m sure my Twitter feed will be pretty busy during the show. But it’s almost a shame, because all of the questions about what a socially distant Oscars looks like risks overshadowing the fact that this might be one of the rare years where the nominees are almost all worth celebrating. 

For one, this is the most diverse slate of Oscar nominees I can recall. It’s wonderful to see films like Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, One Night in Miami, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom among the top honorees, and I’m elated that with Chloe Zhao and Emerald Fennell’s nominations, the Best Director category is no longer a boys’ club. Very few of last year’s best films tell stories about people who look like me (40-year-old white men), and our cinema was that much richer for it. After years of the Oscars being criticized for their lack of diversity, making baby steps with wins for Moonlight and Parasite, this is the first year where it seems like Oscars is celebrating diversity instead of merely making a sop to it. 

Beyond that, what a lineup of films! Most of these movies made some appearance on my top 10 list, and those that didn’t were often runners up. There are some outliers I have yet to get around to (Another Round, Hillbilly Elegy, The United States vs. Billie Holiday), but overall I’ve seen the majority of the nominees. And all of them are movies I would recommend, many of them highly so. For all our jokes that the 2021 Oscars would be a scraping of the barrel of barely released movies or worries that we’d be looking at a Martin Lawrence Supporting Actor award for Bad Boys for Life, the truth is that last year delivered a strong array of films, and this year’s crop should in no way come with an asterisk. 

That’s why I don’t really care who wins on Sunday. Sure, I have my frontrunners and favorites, and we’ll get to those in a moment. But the lineup is so good and I enjoy these films so much that to see most of them walk away with a win would not upset me. Every year, it seems that there’s one film in the Best Picture lineup whose inclusion I can’t quite understand (hello, Joker). This year, the most ire I could muster is “well, I’d only give that three-and-a-half stars, not four.” That’s not a bad place to be in when it comes to movies. 

But tradition dictates that all film writers craft a list of their preferred winners and their predicted ones, and so that’s what I’m about to do. And really, it doesn’t feel obligatory. It feels like a chance to celebrate great films one last time. I’m only going to stick to the five big categories — Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress — because of time and space. And I’d warn you not to use any of my “predictions” to guide your bet-making because I’m not great at this. But let’s get into it; it should be fun! 

Best Picture

Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Eight solid-to-great nominees, all films that I admire and/or enjoy. Judas, Minari, Nomadland and Sound of Metal were all on my top 10 list, and several of the other films were in contention. Obviously, the front-runners are Nomadland and Minari, although I could see the Academy’s love of movies about movies extending to Mank, a film I thought was an enjoyable, if slight, experiment from David Fincher. Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah would both be worthy winners, but I don’t know if they have that transcendent appeal that the Academy looks for in its big winners. The Father, which I just caught up with this week, is a powerful and exquisitely made drama, but I think it plays a bit too small to be considered for the prize. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is likely a shoo-in for Sorkin’s script, but my only gripe is that it never quite felt cinematic enough to achieve greatness (but it’s very enjoyable). Promising Young Woman is a delightful surprise, and jaws would drop if Emerald Fennell’s revenge thriller actually took home the prize, but the film’s probably a tad too rough around the edges to be a serious contender. 

Will win: The buzz has been strong for Nomadland since its Toronto release, and with good reason. Chloe Zhao’s latest is a transcendent bit of cinema, fueled by a standout performance from Frances McDormand and punctuated with gorgeous cinematography. It was my #1 pick from last year. It is a deeply human film with its pulse on important social issues, and it’s the type of soulful experience I chase at the movies. Nomadland has long been the front-runner, and I don’t see its momentum letting up. 

Who I want to win: I have a strong tendency to root for the underdog, even if that underdog wasn’t necessarily my favorite film of the year (and it usually indicates that my considerations of that year’s films is still in flux). My favorite film of 2019 was The Irishman, but as the Oscars drew near, I found myself rooting for Bong Joon Ho and Parasite to take home the gold, even though that film was “only” my #2 pick. And I’m finding it happening again this year. Yes, I love Nomadland, and will be very happy if it wins. But I find myself really hoping Lee Isaac Chung’s funny, heartfelt Minari will pull off an upset. Maybe it’s because the A24 release isn’t backed up by the campaign power of Fox Searchlight (and Disney), like Nomadland is. Maybe it’s just that I find Chung’s story so likable and moving. Maybe it really is my favorite film of the year (it was #2, and it was a very close call). Whatever it is, I find myself rooting for Arkansas farming over van life (but please note: Nomadland and Minari would make a fascinating double feature). 

Hey, what about: Every year, there are snubs, but this year there are a few that feel particularly egregious. Spike Lee delivered his best film in ages (and that’s saying something) with Netflix’s Da 5 Bloods, which was completely shut out. And while I’m sure its smallness was the reason it got overlooked, Kelly Reichardt’s First Cow deserved some love as well. 

Best Director

Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari; Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman; David Fincher, Mank; Chloe Zhao, Nomadland; Thomas Vinterburg, Another Round

I still need to catch up with Another Round, which I had barely heard about before the Oscar nominations were announced. The rest of the lineup is solid. Chung finds the universal in the specific with Minari. Fennell gives a hell of a directorial debut with the angry, poppy and brilliant Promising Young Woman. Fincher is one of the greats, even if Mank feels like a bit of a lark for him. And Zhao, coming off the acclaim of The Rider, has earned comparisons to Agnes Varda and Terrence Malick with Nomadland. And she’s positioned to become the next big thing; her next project, The Eternals, will see if she can carry that artistic integrity over to the Marvel Cinematic Universe. 

Who will win: Again, Zhao is the front-runner, so conventional wisdom is on her side. But I have a suspicion this could be Fincher’s year. While I think Mank is fun but slight, it’s a multi-nominee, and the Oscar voters love their celebrations of Hollywood (even if Mank is 100% not a celebration of Hollywood). I’m going out on a limb, but I think it could be the night Fincher gets his Oscar. And I won’t complain. The man directed Seven, Fight Club, The Social Network and Zodiac; he’s overdue. 

Who I want to win: Nomadland is a breathtaking, beautiful bit of art, and it all stems from Zhao’s work. There’s poetry in the way she captures the American West, and her work with non-trained actors is impeccable. We need artist’s with Zhao’s eye and, more importantly, her soulfulness. I hope being part of the Marvel Machine doesn’t mean this is the last we see of this side of her. 

Hey, what about: Seriously, Spike Lee. Where is he? Likewise, Regina King is missing after proving there’s nothing she can’t do with her direction on One Night in Miami, in which she translated Kemp Powers’ one-room play without making it feel claustrophobic, and successfully humanized the icons at its center. And I know Steve McQueen’s Small Axe films were submitted for TV awards. But it’s worth repeating that McQueen directed five good-to-great films in one year, and that deserves calling out. 

Best Actor

Nominees: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal; Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Anthony Hopkins, The Father; Gary Oldman, Mank; Steven Yeun, Minari

How do you make a decision in this category? Where to even start? Anthony Hopkins gives one of the best performances of an iconic career as an ailing man in The Father. Chadwick Boseman delivers a final performance full of rage and pain that was done while battling cancer. Riz Ahmed’s work in Sound of Metal is ferocious, heartbreaking and inspiring without ever being cloying. And Yeun cycles through frustration, hope, heartbreak and joy as a father trying to tend to the land and care for his family in Minari, and never once does it feel like a performance. I could say that Oldman is the weak link, but just watch him in that climactic dinner scene and you’ll be reminded that he is one of our great actors. Whoever wins, we win. 

Will win: I could see three options, and all of them seem plausible. Boseman’s win would not only honor a great performance, but would award an actor who was gone before we were able to see the full range of what he was capable of. Hopkins could be awarded for giving a heartbreaking, lived-in performance that stands among his best work. Or Riz Ahmed could be anointed the next great actor; and those who’ve been paying attention know that’s not coming out of nowhere. All of these are possible and none of them would feel like cheats. This is great work all around. 

Who I want to win: Again, how do you choose? But the Oscars have often been chided as going to “the most,” not the best. And Yeun’s performance in Minari is most certainly not the most. It’s the type of quiet, understated role that is normally not recognized, and yet there’s so much going on under that placid surface that it might be the performance that lingers the most. And, like Ahmed, Yeun’s being doing remarkable work throughout the last few years. This wouldn’t feel out of the blue. 

Hey, what about: Of course, any of these wins overlook the fact that the best performance of 2020 was not even nominated. I know I’m beating a dead horse, but there is no way that Delroy Lindo should not be in the conversation here. Just watch his big scene (you know the one) and try to explain his exclusion. 

Best Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Andra Day, The United Stats vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman; Frances McDormand, Nomadland; Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman 

Again, you’re not going to hear much complaining from me here. I haven’t seen Billie Holiday, but the rest are all solid picks. McDormand is, of course, a treasure, as is Davis. I feel like Pieces of a Woman falls apart after its gripping, harrowing opening sequence, but Kirby’s performance is strong throughout. And Mulligan, who seemed to have been below the radar the last few years, came roaring back with a vengeance in Promising Young Woman. 

Will win: Had McDormand not won a few years back for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, I think she’d walk away with the gold. But I think it’s Mulligan’s award to lose (she was last nominated 11 years ago for her breakthrough in An Education). She’s utterly deserving; she walks a tightrope in a film that is a mixture of thriller, satire and drama, and she creates a character who has to be terrifying and heartbreaking in equal measure. It’s a great performance. 

Who I want to win: Listen, McDormand is fantastic. And Vanessa Kirby gives it all. But Mulligan is electric, and should walk away with this. 

What about: I can’t really get too upset that Never Rarely Sometimes Always is not in the conversation; I didn’t see it myself until well after my critics group ballots had been submitted. The film is small, and while it was a 2020 Sundance favorite, it had the misfortune to play there just a few weeks before the pandemic changed the conversation. But Sidney Flanigan’s work as a teenage girl seeking an abortion is remarkable. With minimal dialogue, Flanigan creates a fleshed-out character, and the film’s titular scene is one of last year’s most unforgettable. 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami; Paul Raci, Sound of Metal; Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Let’s get this out of the way now: Warner Bros. did Kaluuya and Stanfield dirty by nominating them both for supporting actor. Stanfield’s character is clearly the movie’s lead, and he should have been nominated as such (my guess is they knew the field would be crowded; a shame, as it’s a great performance). Kaluuya, who is a standout, will likely get canceled out. Cohen has gotten a lot of notice for his more serious work in Chicago 7, but while he’s good, his Abbie Hoffman isn’t nearly as memorable as the work done by Mark Rylance or Eddie Redmayne (I say the latter much to my surprise, because I usually don’t care for him). Raci’s mentor character is the heart of Sound of Metal, and he wisely doesn’t overplay the emotion in his big scene with Ahmed; I’m always more impressed when actors restrain the big emotions. And Odom takes the iconic Sam Cooke and creates a complex, conflicted character. 

Who will win: I feel like it’s shaping up to be Cohen’s prize to take home. Like I said, I think Kaluuya and Stanfield may cancel each other out. Raci’s work is great, but I could see it getting lost among the others. Odom’s a wild card, but I think they’ll award the larger performance from Cohen. 

Who I want to win: This is another stacked category, and there’s not really a wrong answer. But Kaluuya is unforgettable as Fred Hampton, the leader of the Black Panther Party. Kaluuya brings to life the charisma and passion Hampton was known for, but also brings humanity and warmth, particularly in the relationship between Hampton and his girlfriend, Deborah Johnson. Kaluuya is always good, but in Judas and the Black Messiah, he’s better than he’s ever been. 

What about: Miranda July’s Kajillionaire didn’t make a splash many places, although it easily could have merited best actress and supporting actress nominations for Evan Rachel Wood and Gina Rodriguez, respectively. But Richard Jenkins as the desperate, unloving patriarch of a family of con artists is fantastic. Also, as proof the the Academy rarely notices comedy (with an exception we’ll get to in the next category): they totally left out Jamie Dornan’s clueless lover for Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar. The least they could have done was recognize poor Edward’s song. 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The Father; Amanda Seyfriend, Mank; Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

It feel weird just to type out that a Borat movie is nominated for an Oscar (it’s actually nominated for two). But Bakalova is absolutely the standout, having to take on a lot of the comedic weight to keep the focus off of Cohen, whose character is much too recognizable to pull off the man-on-the-street sequences anymore. She also is the centerpiece of the film’s much talked about (and truly shocking) climactic sequence with Rudy Giuliani. I haven’t seen Hillbilly Elegy, having been warned against it by several critics I trust. Seyfriend gives Mank’s best and most complex performance. But it’s Colman, whose distraught daughter cares for her ailing father, and Yuh-Jung Youn, as the Mt. Dew-loving grandmother in Minari, who deliver some of the most memorable and talked about performances. 

Will win: There are two ways I see this going: the Academy goes for the guts and shock of Borat and recognizes Bakalova, or they recognize the heart of Minari. I wasn’t as enamored with the Borat sequel as others (I really need to revisit it), and I think Youn is a delight in Minari, so my preference would be the latter. 

Who I want to win: It would be wonderful to see Youn recognized; Minari’s acting is great across the board, and the beauty of it is how all of it feels grounded. But Colman’s work in The Father shouldn’t be overlooked. She has to go toe-to-toe with one of our greatest actors giving one of his greatest performances, and she holds her own so well. She plays the frustration, heartbreak, anger, fear and empathy of a caretaking child perfectly. 

Hey, what about: As Deborah Johnson, I guess it’s easy to dismiss Dominique Fishback as playing the loving, concerned girlfriend. But she’s essential to giving Fred Hampton his focus and passion, and Fishback is the center point for much of the film’s emotion. I wish she had more recognition for this. Also, in Let Them All Talk, Candace Bergen creates a character who’s both funny and sad, and steals the entire film from Meryl Streep, no easy task.

The last two weeks have kind of been a blur around here. Work’s been busy and we continue to navigate a COVID exposure that had my wife quarantined from us. So there hasn’t been a lot of other work put out yet, and I don’t quite think I’ve seen anything worth writing about yet. So no Chrisicisms or Digest this week. Next week, we should be up and running a bit more. 

Also, a note: I’m starting to explore some of the possibilities for this newsletter, and what I want to be able to do with it. It’s become clearer that this is probably the ideal way for me to do a lot of my writing, and my hope is to start instituting some ongoing features and approaches beginning in May (and for now, it’s all still going to be free). I’ll have more to say about that in a few weeks. I’m excited; there’s a lot I can do with this, and I’m beginning to feel like I’ve just scratched the surface.