My Oscar predictions

Just a warning: I’m bad at this, so don’t be calling Vegas

The Oscars are Sunday, and if you’re a film writer, you’re pretty much obligated to share your thoughts on your picks for the night. 

I’m not an Oscar hater. I’ve talked about this several times – while I agree with those who say it’s silly to rank art and that the truly best films of the year are rarely recognized, I’m grateful for a night dedicated to honoring movies and potentially introducing mainstream audiences to things they might not otherwise consider. Maybe someone who tunes in to see how many awards Top Gun: Maverick walks away with will be encouraged to give Everything Everywhere All at Once a chance. Any given Oscar night can provide budding film lovers with a great syllabus. And honestly, this year, many of the best films are represented. 

But here’s the thing: I kind of hate sharing my Oscar picks. I’m really bad at prognosticating. And on a good year – such as this one – I don’t really care who wins. This a great crop of nominees, and even if there are some eyebrow-raising choices (sorry, fun as it is, Top Gun: Maverick should not be a Best Picture contender), there aren’t any films that I would be flat-out upset if they did well (well, maybe one; it rhymes with Smelvis). And, I have to confess, the crunch of trying to catch up with everything, which was hindered last year because our local critics group disbanded, means there are a few films I still haven’t seen, such as The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front and Triangle of Sadness. But in a year where so much good is being honored, it’s hard to pick a front-runner. This was a good year of cinema; I’m happy with the crop of nominees. 

But tradition is tradition, and I have a newsletter I need content for. I’m not going to try to go through every category – that way lies madness – but here are my picks for what I think will earn an Oscar in a few categories and my personal preference; as well as a comment about what might have been left out of the race. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Living, Kazuo Ishiguro; Women Talking, Sarah Polley; All Quiet on the Western Front, Edgar Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell; Top Gun: Maverick, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Rian Johnson 

Will win: As with most categories this year, it’s a field of pretty worthy nominees (I think the Top Gun nom is a real stretch, but if you consider it more for its reliable, crowd-pleasing structure and less for its dialogue…nah, still a stretch). I’m going to go out on a limb and say this goes to Glass Onion. Screenplay is often a consideration of smart dialogue or ingenious construction, and Johnson’s script has both. It’s a wonderfully complex bit of work that references what it’s doing early on – and its dialogue is some of the funniest of the year. And the film was enough of a crowd pleaser that I think the Academy members will have an easy time voting for this. 

Should win: Sarah Polley has quietly been building a filmography as one of our most insightful and emotionally curious writer-directors. She was previously nominated in 2008 for her screenplay for Away from Her, and I think Take This Waltz has been unfairly overlooked. But Women Talking, adapted from Miriam Toews’ novel, is her strongest script yet. As the title implies, it’s a dialogue-heavy film, and the film takes heavy matter and fills it with imagination, hope and even some lightness. The movie is not just about the content of these conversations – it’s about the opportunity they provide for the characters to discover their identities and imagine a different future. It’s masterful writing, and continues Polley’s fascination with her characters’ interior lives. 

What about: After Yang, Kogonada’s adaptation of Alexander Weinsetin’s short story “Saying Goodbye to Yang,” is one of the year’s most imaginative, thoughtful and beautiful films. It imagines a future that feels plausible, even recognizable, and it tackles topics of culture, family, grief and memory with an imagination and beauty we rarely see. I think this is a film that’s going to grow in esteem over time. 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert; Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Ȍstlund; Tar, Todd Field; The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh; The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner

Will win: While there’s a chance that the Academy could finally award Tony Kushner, who’s been nominated twice previously, also for Steven Spielberg collaborations (Lincoln and Munich), and it might be tempting to reward Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once’s intricate plotting, I can’t imagine a world in which they don’t give this to Martin McDonagh for his smart, funny and moving script for The Banshees of Inisherin. 

Should win: I think McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin script is flawless, a whip-smart and very funny/crushingly sad story about friendship and identity, and a strong metaphor for Civil War. But I’m going to also tie this with Todd Field’s script for Tár. Cate Blanchett gets all the praise for bringing the character of Lydia Tár to life, but Field’s script is so complex, novelistic and rich. That, coupled with Blanchett’s performance (which we’ll get to) is the reason many have walked out of the film thinking Lydia Tár was a real person. 

What about: Charlotte Wells’ script for Aftersun is such a perceptive, sneakily devastating work. Wells draws on memories of her own father to craft a quiet but observant portrait of parent-child relationships, growing older, despair and empathy. It’s a heartbreaking and personal bit of work. 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Bryan Tyree Henry, Causeway; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Will win: Ke Huy Quan has been unstoppable on the award circuit, and with several good reasons: he’s not only really good in Everything Everywhere…, but he’s also got a great story, as the one-time child star thought he’d given up on his acting dreams and then came back doing great work in one of the film’s most crucial roles. And honestly, the infectious joy of his celebrity selfies at award shows has been one of the highlights of this season. 

Should win: My emotional pick is Ke Huy Quan, and I’ll be extremely happy if he wins. But my brain keeps going back to one of the Banshees stars. I think Gleeson gives one of his strongest performances as a despairing man whose need for meaning sabotages his friendships and health, but I’d also argue he’s actually a co-lead in the movie, not a supporting actor. So I would have no problem if the award went to Barry Keoghan for the same film. He’s funny and heartbreaking in a film that stands out for being both; the fact that he can draw belly laughs for a line about stick with a hook on it and then sledgehammer your heart with his final scene with Kerry Condon is proof of how good he is. 

What about: For a movie called Women Taking, I understand why it might be bad form to honor the cast’s one man. But Ben Wishaw is terrific as the one good man in the colony, who understands his responsibility to support the women without leading them, and who grapples with whether to find his own way out or stay and help those who remain. 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Will win: I have a hunch this is going to be a legacy award. While Jamie Lee Curtis could receive it for Everything Everywhere… and also as a recognition of her body of work, I think the affection for Stephanie Hsu in that same film will cancel it out (and Hsu has the better role). I think this one goes to Angela Bassett, nominated previously for lead actress for What’s Love Got to Do With It, but never a winner. 

Should win: Listen, Angela Bassett is a national treasure and she’s perfectly fine in Wakanda Forever….which is a bad movie. Kerry Condon is a source of goodness and rationality amid a sea of hard-heated, prideful men in The Banshees of Inisherin, and her work stands toe to toe with all the magnificent performances in that film. 

What about: I know Emma Thompson’s big awards play this year was supposed to be Good Luck to You, Leo Grande…but she went hard for Matilda: The Musical as the villainous Miss Trunchbull, and I wish she would have gotten a bit more notice. 

Best Actor

Nominees: Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of  Inisherin; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Austin Butler, Elvis; Bill Nighy, Living

Will win: Maybe the toughest award of the night and almost impossible to call. Do you give Bill Nighy a legacy award for what is possibly his best performance? Recognize Mescal’s subtle but heartbreaking work and anoint him the next big thing? Honor Austin Butler’s work as Elvis, a performance the borders on possession? Call Colin Farrell up to award his best work in a year of great work from the actor? Or do you go with the big Hollywood redemption story and cement Brendan Fraser’s comeback? It’s between Butler and Fraser, and I think in the end there’s too much love for Brendan Fraser to keep him from his Oscar. 

Should win: Colin Farrell’s performance might just be too good. As a dull but nice man, he never goes over the top and instead nails every line with the called-for optimism, pathos or idiocy called for. It’s the best work of his career – which is saying a lot, given that ever since he decided to quit being a movie star and start being an actor, Farrell has consistently turned in great performances. 

What about: Comedy always gets ignored at the Oscars. But honestly, Daniel Radcliffe gives the performance of a lifetime in Weird: The Al Yankovic Story. He looks and sounds nothing like Weird Al, which is the glorious part of the joke – but Radcliffe plays it completely straight, which only makes every scene funnier than the last. It’s a legitimately great performance. 

Best Actress 

Nominees: Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Cate Blanchett, Tár; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Michelle Wiliams, The Fabelmans; Ana de Armas, Blonde

Will win: Could this be a year for a tie? Because I don’t know how the Academy chooses between Cate Blanchett’s rich, layered performance as Lydia Tár and the sheer breadth of what Michelle Yeoh is called to do in Everything Everywhere… In the end, my non-scientific hunch is that the Academy realizes Blanchett already has her Oscar and awards Yeoh, who is not only phenomenal in Everything Everywhere… but has been doing great, badass work for decades. 

Should win: For the same reasons listed above, I’m going to give this a tie. Blanchett and Yeoh are equally fantastic; either one would be the correct choice even if, emotionally, I’m rooting for Yeoh. 

What about: Just as comedies are overlooked at the Oscars, so are action movies. But Amber Midthunder is a commanding lead in the Predator prequel Prey, holding her own against one of the big screen’s most iconic monsters and earning mentions alongside the franchise’s other heavyweights, such as Arnold Schwarzenegger. And while I wasn’t as high on Ti West’s X as others and still haven’t gotten around to Pearl, Mia Goth is the real deal in her double role in the former. 

Best Director

Nominees: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ruben Ȍstlund Triangle of Sadness; Daniel Kwan and Daniel Schweinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Todd Field, Tár; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Will win: I’m going with my gut here, and could be wrong. But while I think Daniels might be a heavy favorite because of the award-season dominance of Everything Everywhere…, my hunch is the Academy goes sentimental on this and gives it to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. Spielberg actually has a pretty rough Oscar track record, and the last time he won the award was back for Saving Private Ryan. But he’s an institution and the personal nature of The Fabelmans may prompt just enough affection to get one more statue. 

Should win: I think Daniels pulled off an amazing feat with Everything Everywhere…. It’s a movie that is constantly one wrong move away from collapsing in on itself, but it never does. It is ambitious, exciting and profound. It was my favorite movie of 2022. But since we’re going to talk about it more later, I’m going to go with Todd Field. His world-building in Tár is just as meticulous as anything the Daniels come up with, with the added challenge of having to feel real and lived-in. The film is rich and complex; it doesn’t allow for easy answers and the further you get from it, the more you realize just how essential every item is. It creates a place for Cate Blanchett to give potentially the best performance in an already legendary career…but it never feels like it’s only a Cate Blanchette performance delivery system. Plus, I’m sure we’ll see something from Daniels in the next few years. Field’s previous film was in 2006; I’m not sure when he gets behind the camera again. 

What about: That After Yang works as well as it does is a testament to Kogonada, who creates a vision for the future I haven’t quite seen on the screen before, and that depends so much on detail in the frame instead of big effects shots. After Yang is meditative and quiet, but also full of so much joy, imagination and beauty. It’s a better musing on our relationship to A.I. than, well, A.I., and in its best moments, it captures the beauty and splendor of Malick without ever venturing over the top in the way his films do.  

Best Picture 

Nominees: Top Gun: Maverick; Avatar: The Way of Water; Women Talking; Tár; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Fabelmans; Triangle of Sadness; All Quiet on the Western Front; Elvis; The Banshees of Inisherin

Will win: The nonstop train for Everything Everywhere All at Once will continue on Oscar night. It’s a daring and fresh movie that’s also attracted a healthy audience. It heralds new directorial voices while allowing beloved actors to give great, award-worthy performances. It’s entertaining and deep, a visual spectacle that also has weightier matters on its mind. It feels right to follow up the Oscars previous attempts at progress by awarding Parasite and Moonlight; and maybe it kind of makes up for the embarrassing awards given to Green Book and CODA. 

Should win: When I first saw Everything Everywhere All At Once, I placed that experience in the same mindframe as my first viewings of The Matrix, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Mad Max: Fury Road. It’s my favorite movie of last year; it’s very likely going to be one of my favorite movies of the decade. It’s funny and imaginative and messy and deep. Do I get why some prefer Tár’s exquisite construction, Banshee’s rich storytelling or Women Talking’s compassionate handling of important topics? Sure. But Everything Everywhere feels like a miracle of a movie, and it’s the movie of the year. 

What about: I understand why the Academy want to make sure that popular, spectacle-driven films like Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water were recognized. And I like both of those films – Avatar was in my top 10. But spectacle peaked in 2022 with RRR, a movie so gloriously big, earnest and over-the-top that I still can’t believe it exists. 

Watch The Oscars Sunday night to see how right or wrong I am! And during the show, follow me on Twitter to hear my thoughts on the show live!